Ester, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

966
FXAK69 PAFG 171145
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
345 AM AKDT Sun May 17 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
Spring-time is here for areas south of the Brooks Range as the
snow continues to melt, river breakup progresses further
downstream, and temperatures remain steadily in the 50s and 60s
through the weekend. The North Slope, however, is expected to
continue to see temperatures in the upper 20s and lower 30s with
areas of stratus and fog expected to continue into later this
morning. East/northeast wind gusts are expected to increase for
the NW Arctic, possibly resulting in areas of blowing snow and
reduced visibility. A Bering Sea low will bring robust moisture
resulting in scattered precipitation for the West Coast and
Western Interior today. A series of fronts associated with this
low will bring isolated to scattered showers for the Interior
beginning Monday, with the possibility of isolated thunderstorms
to be associated with these showers. Wind Advisories continue for
gusty southerly winds today through the Alaska Range passes and
Delta Junction. Dry conditions and gusty winds for Delta Junction
will lead to Red Flag conditions this afternoon.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...

Central and Eastern Interior...

- Winds remain gusty in the AK Range with Min RH around 20% and
  wind gusts over 50 mph in Isabel Pass and Delta Junction
  resulting in a Red Flag Warning this afternoon and evening. A
  Wind advisory is also in effect through 1 PM this afternoon in
  Windy Pass for gusts up to 60 mph.

- Isolated to scattered showers are expected to begin for the
  Interior on Monday into Tuesday with the possibility of
  isolated thunderstorms to be associated with these showers.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- Isolated showers possible along a front extending from the
  Seward Peninsula to Lake Minchumina. A thunderstorm is possible
  in the northwestern Seward Peninsula as well (10% chance).

- Isolated to scattered showers in the YK Delta and Lower Yukon
  with the next chance for widespread rain coming on Tuesday.

North Slope and Brooks Range..

- Chilly temperatures persist with highs in the 20s and lows in
  the teens along the North Slope. A gradient of temperatures
  across the Brooks Range with highs in the 50s to near 60 along
  the southern slopes and low 40s for the northern slopes.

- Northeast winds are expected to increase tonight and into
  tomorrow for the western North Slope, which could result in
  areas of blowing snow and reduced visibility.

- Mainly dry conditions are expected for the next few days with a
  slight chance for showers and even a thunderstorm in the eastern
  Brooks Range on Tuesday.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...

A Bering Sea low will draw additional moisture northward due to a
series of relatively weak fronts, bringing isolated showers for
the YK Delta and Seward Peninsula today. Accompanying these
showers will be gusty easterly/southerly winds for the YK Delta
and Western Interior. There is also a slight possibility of
freezing rain in the western Seward Peninsula tonight into
tomorrow morning. These winds will generally be strongest in the
afternoon and evenings and could see gusts as high as 35 to 40
mph. A more substantial shortwave will rotate around the low late
Monday into Tuesday, bringing isolated to scattered showers for
the Interior and persist through the week. Isolated thunderstorms
are possible with these showers, especially towards the first half
of the week. This shortwave will likely bring steadier
precipitation for southwest Alaska with the highest amounts
expected in the YK Delta and southwest Interior.

Due to this low remaining in the Bering Sea throughout the
weekend and a Northeastern Arctic High, a pressure gradient will
form over the state, especially over the Alaska Range. Upwards of
6 mb of a pressure gradient and southerly flow through the Alaska
Range will continue to produce gusty winds today, with the
strongest wind gusts as high as 60 mph possible this morning in
Isabel and Windy Pass and 50 mph in Delta Junction. Wind
Advisories have been issued for both areas. As a result of these
strong winds and dry conditions, a Red Flag Warning has been
issued for Delta Junction throughout the rest of the day.

The North Slope is expected to remain chilly through the beginning
part of this week. Northeast/east wind gusts are expected to
increase to as high as 35 mph in the northwest Arctic beginning
tonight and into tomorrow, resulting in the possibility of blowing
snow.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

The main fire weather concern continues to be around Delta Junction,
where winds will remain elevated out of the south through Sunday
with afternoon RHs dropping to as low as 20%. Sustained winds will
be around 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph in Delta and 60 mph
towards Isabel Pass through at least Sunday afternoon. Winds will
likely remain elevated for much of next week in this corridor, which
are expected to peak on Tuesday and again on Thursday. RHs will
increase tonight and Sunday night but only up to 50% so recovery
will not be great. We will be monitoring for potential red flag
conditions into next week, but for now, a Red Flag Warning is in
effect for Delta Junction through Sunday evening with the most
critical times being Sunday afternoon with marginal recovery
overnight. Otherwise, no significant thunderstorm potential exists
through much of the upcoming week outside of very isolated activity,
with rain showers most abundant in the Western Interior as a series
of fronts move through the area. More organized showers farther west
will shift towards the Central/Eastern Interior midweek, keeping
daily shower chances and clouds around beyond that into next
weekend. Highs across much of the forecast area will be in the 50s
and mid 60s with lows in the 30s/40s through the week ahead, with
afternoon MinRH around 25-40% for the Interior.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Yukon River:
No significant changes to the ongoing flood products and river
forecasts. The breakup front on the Yukon is now approaching
Grayling but there is no significant concern for flooding as it
heads there. Water remains high on the Yukon upriver from the
breakup front due to snowmelt with a Flood Warning remaining in
effect in Galena. No significant flooding is expected from this
high water.

Buckland River:
There have not been any updates since yesterday. If any new
information comes out, we will update the flood watch.

Chena:
The Chena River continues to respond to warmer temperatures with
higher elevation snowmelt leading to rivers running higher than
normal, but likely remaining below action stage.

Additional Information:
Visit www.weather.gov/aprfc for the latest hydro information.

Please report observed flooding to local emergency services, law
enforcement, or to the National Weather Service when you can do so
safely.

&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...Wednesday through next Saturday.

No significant changes to the upper level pattern are expected
through extended forecast, which will continue to be dominated by
upper level troughing over Western Alaska and the Bering Sea and
upper level ridging in the NE Pacific. This setup will continue to
support broad southerly flow into Northern Alaska which while
holding temperatures steady, will lead to moisture and associated
cloud cover building into our region. On Wednesday, models remain in
reasonable agreement on a series of two lows: one around 1000 mb in
the Gulf of Alaska and a secondary, stronger low centered near the
Central Aleutians around 975 mb. Moisture from the low in the Gulf
of Alaska and a shortwave trough lifting north between these two
features will help kickoff daily, scattered rain showers with high
elevation snow showers generally above 3000 to 4000 feet.

As that low now in the Bering Sea by Thursday continues to lift
northeast towards our region, we will see an enhanced pressure
gradient develop between this low and high pressure over the High
Arctic. As a result, winds will broadly see an increase Thursday
with strongest winds expected along the West Coast, St. Lawrence,
Delta Junction, and through Alaska Range Passes. These locations are
where we are expecting gusts to be around 30-50 mph, locally
stronger in the Alaska Range up to around 65 mph. While breezy winds
are expected to continue earlier on Wednesday through the Alaska
Range, our best Wind Advisory regime is still looking like Thursday.
Given the time of year with temperatures across much of our region
south of the Brooks Range seeing highs hold steady well into the 50s
and 60s outside of some 30s/40s along the West Coast, daily very
isolated thunderstorms will also be possible that will peak in
coverage each afternoon and evening with a focus on the Interior.

Temperatures won`t be changing too much as highs range from the 50s
to 60s in the Interior and 40s/50s along the West Coast. The North
Slope will be chilly through the middle of next week. As fronts
continue to drift north, it has the chance gradually erode the cold
air which could bring some warmer air into the area by the end of
next week. The main reinforcing driver for the colder temperatures
across the North Slope continues to be high pressure in the High
Arctic, leading to colder and drier conditions and keeping the storm
track across Alaska staying farther south.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Wind Advisory for AKZ837-849.
     Flood Watch for AKZ818-829.
     Red Flag Warning for AKZ937.
     Wind Advisory for AKZ847.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ801-850.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ802.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ810.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ811.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ812.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ816.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ817.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ851-854.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ856.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ857.
&&

$$

Lewis
MacKay - Extended/Fire Weather